As Israel's operation in Gaza reaches into its third week, it can already be called a war, one with a life-expectancy of at least another week or two. Unless a cease-fire agreement is consolidated in the next few days that meets the terms of both Israel and Hamas, as well as those of Egypt, the ground incursion will continue and the number of casualties on both sides will triple.
This operation bears more similarities to the Second Lebanon War than either of Israel's actions in Gaza in 2009 or 2012, both in the alarming numbers of casualties among Palestinian civilians and Israeli soldiers, and in Hamas' well trained combat strategies and infiltrations, reminiscent of those undertaken by Hezbollah in 2006.
Hamas has made good on its promise of turning the Gaza Strip into a graveyard for Israeli soldiers, with at least 25 IDF deaths confirmed so far. The death toll among Palestinians has reached nearly 550, and though there are is no exact count of women and children among this number, the vast battles in crowded civilian neighborhood as well as the air strikes on hospitals, mosques and schools concealing Hamas' weaponry indicates a percentage far higher than the number of militant casualties.
Over 1,100 Lebanese civilians were killed in the 31 days of fighting in 2006, and 121 Israeli soldiers, with 4,000 rockets fired at Israeli civilians – at the rate this operation is going, half the time so far of Lebanon, the 2014 Gaza war will produce far more devastation. Hamas has insisted that it will keep on fighting, and its ground battles against Israel in the center of the Gaza Strip have been relentless, as has its rocket attacks against southern and central Israel. No long-range M-302 has been fired at northern Israel in nearly a week, signaling that either Israel has demolished this supply or that Hamas has hidden it well while it focuses on head-to-head combat and close range accuracy.
Hamas has lured the IDF into crowded neighborhoods in Gaza, increasing the casualties on both sides and surprising the Israeli troops with its tactics of ambush, particularly using anti-tank missiles, but its greatest surprise so far has been its infiltration through Gaza tunnels into populated Israeli territory. At least three infiltrations have been successful so far, begging the question of why the IDF does not focus its battles along the border to strike their openings, rather than being lured by Hamas into the crowded neighborhoods of Gaza City where these tunnels are based to hide headquarter operations and rocket depots.
Two channels of cease-fire negotiations are currently underway. Former National Security Adviser Giora Eiland defined them to me in our conversation tonight as such: the first, in Cairo, where the Egyptian mediators of the first proposal offered last week are negotiating with Israeli, Hamas, Palestinian Authority and international officials. UN Chief Ban Ki-moon arrived Monday for talks and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was due to land tonight with a message from his boss Barack Obama to reach a cease-fire as soon as possible.
On the other channel, Hamas is negotiating with Turkey and Qatar, and solidifying its stance that it will not bend to demands, telling Arab media outlets that its mediators on that end support its stance.
These two channels represent two possible outcomes: the first is the one offered and accepted by Israel and rejected by Hamas, which stipulates two phases of a cease-fire, beginning with a halt in hostilities followed by a negotiations process of future security arrangements. The second is coordinated by Hamas, with the apparent support of Qatar – its main and only benefactor – and Turkey, which calls for a one-phase cease-fire that encompasses all demands in one swift agreement.
Israel and Egypt are coordinated in the two-phase proposal, and even in the initial decision of the IDF to enter Gaza to locate the tunnels in an effort to wipe out Hamas' military capabilities and bring about the inevitable demilitarization of Gaza, be its future government run by Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, or an international entity.
Considering Hamas' refusals, it is likely that Turkey and particularly Qatar – tasked as the overseer of any rehabilitation in Gaza post-truce – will yield the upper hand in the actual cease-fire to come. Israel has made clear that it will not interject in political decisions in Gaza, and has allied itself with Egypt to dismantle the military regime in Hamas. Israel is open to the Qatari proposals, however, and like Hamas, sees a benefit in the Islamist organization's main demand of opening the Rafah crossing - something Egypt is less inclined to agree to.
There are indications, however, that Egypt is willing to amend its cease-fire draft to accommodate this Hamas request, so long as the Islamist organization surrenders its military capabilities.
Despite Egypt's hesitation, Israel is likely to take a Qatari proposal based on Hamas demands into consideration. As long as the cease-fire stipulates a total halt to hostilities and demilitarization, Israel is amenable to the flow of international or Arab funds to rebuild Gaza (with a guarantee of no weapons influx), the complete opening of Gaza's Rafah border crossing with Egypt, and temporary eases on seaports and the crossing with Israel to ensure the rehabilitation of civilian life in the strip.
The international heavyweights now in Gaza, the UN Secretary General and U.S. President Barack Obama's top diplomat, want to see a quick a swift resolution. Should their negotiations yield willingness with Egyptian President Abdel al-Sissi to negotiate with the Qatari and Turkish drafts as demanded by Hamas, a viable cease-fire proposal could emerge by tomorrow morning – though will likely take more than a few days of deliberations before presentation.
The ball is in Egypt's court tonight, and Israel's immediately thereafter, once an outline of the proposal has been presented. Otherwise, the casualty and refugee numbers of the 2014 Gaza war will far surpass those of Lebanon. Israel is not willing to take that chance, particularly now as the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority have been put far on hold and the Iran nuclear talks have passed their deadline with barely any media attention.
Israel has no interest in seeing this war escalate, and neither does Hamas – no matter what gains it thinks it has reached, it depends on international support, funding, and moreover recognition, and with the rising number of casualties on both sides along with the demolition of its rocket depot, it knows it has little chance of surviving beyond the next two weeks, unless a cease-fire is reached.
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