Israelis and Gazans awoke Monday morning to an unsettling and familiar silence – quiet on both fronts as their governments agreed to a new 72-hour truce aimed at reaching a permanent cease-fire and a security arrangement for the Gaza Strip, one that will inevitably ease Hamas' iron hold over the coastal territory.
Both sides are well versed in what these heretofore redundant lulls mean: hourly countdowns as the truce holds - awaiting one false move - and come midnight on day three, the very real chance that the negotiations will prove fruitless and the fighting will resume. If this round of talks fails, the trade of fire will be harsher than before, and the consequences will be all the more devastating: Nothing will stop Hamas from launching the thousands of rockets and mortar shells still in its cache at rapid rate until they run out; Israel will make good on its promise to respond with relentless force, and a full-out invasion of the Gaza Strip will likely be its next desperate battle move.
This is the last chance for both Israel and Hamas. One more failed truce and the Egyptian mediators will have no further recourse to negotiate a future arrangement. Rejection of this draft, which awards unprecedented concessions to Hamas with guarantees for Israel's security, would be a suicidal move for both, setting the region back at least 10 years and ensuring an indefinite state of war with innumerable casualties and losses on either side.
Hamas has won Cairo's assurances that most of its demands will be met: Israel will halt fire, border crossings will open under Palestinian Authority and Egyptian supervision, Gaza will be rehabilitated through billions of dollars provided by international and inter-Arab forces (to be discussed in the next stage of talks), its fishing zone will be extended significantly, more monthly permits will be granted to allow Gaza residents to pass through Israel into the West Bank, and a prisoner release plan will be set with Israel at later stages of negotiations.
Israel has refused to relent on the opening of air and sea ports in the Gaza Strip. but has eased its firm demand for the demilitarization of Gaza, expressing willingness in internal deliberations to settle on assurances that the militant groups will not be rearmed. Hamas' main demand – that the blockade on Gaza be lifted – can only be achieved through this Egyptian draft, which enables the opening of land crossings via external monitoring and within guidelines amenable to Israel's security concerns. Even without direct sea and air access, Gaza will no longer be cut off from the world and if the transfer of goods and people across the land crossing is respected, may well see establishment of these ports in the not so distant future.
Israel, which refused to send its own delegation back to Cairo until the Palestinian factions agreed to the temporary truce, did not resume its end of the negotiations blindly. The team was in direct contact with Egyptian and international officials throughout, well-updated on the arrangements being made to simultaneously enable these gestures to Hamas without sacrificing Israel's own conditions for a future security agreement.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE were enlisted to fund the rehabilitation of Gaza, in addition to Hamas' main benefactor Qatar, to ensure that any flow of money and material through the soon-to-be-eased borders is not used for terror or military means. Millions of dollars were transferred to Hamas' leadership in the hours before the Islamist organization officially agreed to the temporary truce, to pay the salaries of its military men and government clerks – a factor that no doubt sweetened its resolve to agree to the cease-fire.
The Israeli delegation returned to Cairo before noon on Monday, after nearly 12 hours of quiet. The negotiations over the next two days will be tense and technical, as the mediators attempt to tune their draft to exactly the pitch both the Israeli and Palestinian sides want to hear. Back at home, Israelis and Gazans will just as tensely await the verdict: Will the cease-fire be extended? Will the blockade be lifted? Or will war resume again?
If this round of negotiations and the temporary truce holding it upright falter, there will be no chance for revival. Hamas will remain isolated, without avenue of repair for the destruction in the Gaza Strip or support for the thousands of residents orphaned, displaced and disabled by the war. It will fire its waning arsenal at Israel at rapid rate and find itself under full occupation again, with no end to the blockade in sight. Israel will be left to deal with the welfare of 3 million people and the rise of even more hostile jihadist militancy. The Egyptian outline must still be fine-tuned, but even in its unfinished draft, offers a win-win solution for both Israel and Hamas. It is the final frontier for any semblance of peace and security in this region and the only mechanism left to prevent a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip.
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